Trump Voters Could Fuel Holiday Spending, While Harris Supporters May Pull Back

Black Friday is poised to take on a new tint of red, white and blue this year after an election that many say was won and lost on consumer sentiment and the economy. 

CNBC analyzed shipping trends in red and blue states and spoke with shoppers in Texas, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, North Carolina and Virginia to better understand how the 2024 presidential election results could influence the holiday shopping season. 

People who voted for President-elect Donald Trump were overwhelmingly positive about the future of the economy, while supporters of Vice President Kamala Harris were more pessimistic, concerned that the incoming president’s policies could make things harder on the middle class. In a world where sentiment drives purchasing decisions, these differences in opinion could shape how much people end up spending this holiday season.

For example, Harris voter Amanda Davila, a 30-year-old New York City educator, told CNBC she’s planning to spend less on the holidays this year and is “trying to be more cautious” about spending in the leadup to Trump taking office in January. 

“I’m worried about my own student loans and whether things will be taken out of forbearance, how much I’m going to be owing if the SAVE Plan [for student loan repayment] goes away and things like that,” said Davila. “It’s very hard being a millennial and having to worry about buying a house, affording groceries, rent, all that stuff. With our income, it’s not enough for everything these days.” 

Meanwhile, Trump voter Armando Duarte, a 62-year-old retired utility worker from Fort Lee, New Jersey, told CNBC he’s feeling a lot better about the holiday shopping season since Trump won. 

“I’m optimistic that people are going to feel a little bit more encouraged to spend because they may feel that the economy might be on the mend and coming back,” said Duarte. “I think things are going to really pick up for the better ... I think that inflation is going to come down. Jobs are good, but they’re going to get a lot better, and hopefully wages are going to go up, and people are going to be able to afford to just basically live.” 

In the months before the 2024 election, retailers fretted over whether it would hurt sales and the all-important holiday shopping season, which was already facing a bleak outlook due to the shortened time between Thanksgiving and Christmas, among other challenges. Many companies issued cautious guidance for the back half of the year, in part over concerns that the election would distract consumers from shopping or a drawn-out election certification process would lead to unrest and dampen sales. 

However, now that Trump has won, it appears the election result could boost sales — at least in many parts of the country — because his supporters largely believe that economic conditions will improve under his direction. If people are feeling better about the economy, it means they’ll likely spend more, too, experts said. 

“If they feel optimistic about what comes ahead, then they are willing to spend more, even if it is on a credit card, knowing or expecting that they’re going to have the money to then pay it off,” said Meir Statman, an expert in behavioral finance and a professor at Santa Clara University’s Leavey School of Business. “So the general optimism of Republicans, on the whole, is likely to affect their spending. We know that sentiment generally affects what people do, including spending, and conversely, it might depress, of course, the sentiment of Democrats, and in all likelihood, negatively affect their spending.” 

The way some Americans were shopping online in the aftermath of the election bolsters that argument.

Shipping data gathered by e-commerce logistics provider Grip, which ships billions in merchandise across the country every year and specializes in the delivery of perishable goods, shows different shipping patterns in blue and red states. The firm examined the total number of packages it sent in the two months before the election and what percentage went to each state, and how that changed in the two weeks after the election.

In GOP-won states, shipping volumes increased by 50.4% after the election, while Democrat-won states saw volumes decrease by an average of 11.2%. Only two blue states — Illinois and Minnesota — saw shipping volumes increase after the election, while all others saw rates fall.

In a national consumer survey taken after the election, GlobalData found 51.3% of respondents believe a Trump presidency will positively affect the economy, while 13.5% plan to spend more this season now that he’s been elected. Conversely, 7.2% said they plan to spend less.

In another survey conducted by retail analytics firm First Insight, a third of consumers said they are planning to reduce their holiday spending budgets because of the election.

“Consumers have mixed feelings about the election result. However, on balance, there are more who see it as positive for the economy than those who see it as negative,” said GlobalData managing director and retail analyst Neil Saunders. “If people feel good, they are more likely to spend a little more over the holidays. Trump may not have had a huge impact on Christmas, but as far as spending is concerned, he is more of a Santa-like figure than a Grinch.”